Diesel prices have risen by 50 per cent and fertiliser prices by 30 per cent, making sowing 'unsustainable', the shortage and high cost of grain are being passed on to the prices of bread, eggs, meat and dairy products.
The cereal sector is facing a complex situation that could jeopardise food production: a poor harvest, rising prices due to geopolitical crises, and farmers who are struggling because, they say, they are unable to cover their costs.
If we start by looking at the figures, we can see that prices on the Spanish wholesale market are rising by around 15 per cent. "Soft wheat, maize and barley have reached their highest price levels in 15 months in recent weeks, driven by tension in global markets," according to the trade association Accoe (Spanish Association of Cereal and Oilseed Trade). At the same time, there has been a fall in production of nearly 30 per cent, from 22 million tonnes in the previous season to just 14.5 million this season, due to drought and extreme heat.
But none of this means that Spanish farmers receive more money for selling their wheat: "The cereals market is currently trading at the same prices as when the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was established back in 1960, but with production costs that have soared tenfold," Óscar Salazar, head of cereals at the farmers' organisation COAG, told RTVE Noticias: "Machinery costs are sky-high; agricultural diesel has risen by 50 per cent this year alone, and fertilisers have risen by a similar margin. We farmers thought the solution was to increase the size of our farms, but we've realised that's a dead end."
Why doesn't the price rise enough to make up for a smaller harvest?
The main reason is that the price is set abroad. Spain is a net importer of cereals, primarily for animal feed. Our country accounts for around 40 per cent of all the cereals that the European Union purchases from third countries because it does not produce enough itself. Consequently, the price on the Spanish markets depends on what the international market dictates, rather than on shortages on domestic farms.
The president of the Spanish Grain Trade Association (ACCOE), Marcos Martínez, explains that "price fluctuations are determined by major international exchanges such as Chicago and Paris, as well as by production and weather conditions in key grain-exporting nations such as Ukraine and Russia, which means that prices are subject to the law of supply and demand, but on a global scale".
A situation that Óscar Salazar of COAG laments: "European laws have favoured imported cereals. At the moment, 50 per cent of the grain coming into the European Union comes from Ukraine, and they are selling it to us as an act of solidarity with that country, when that is not the case. People need to know that the majority of Ukrainian grain production is controlled by 10 investment funds that do not even have their registered offices in that country." He concludes forcefully that "European laws are not benefiting Ukraine; they are favouring investment funds and ruining the Spanish grain sector".
Current prices – around 230 euros per tonne of white wheat – are well below the 300 euros that would be needed to cover the high costs of fertiliser and diesel given such low yields. This gap between fixed costs and low revenue per hectare has already resulted in estimated losses of 1,650 million euros for the Spanish agricultural sector.
The sowing of hundreds of hectares in Spain is at risk
Spanish cereal farmers have been complaining for decades that production costs are suffocating them. They explain that whilst the selling price of their crops is falling at the mercy of rules dictated by international markets, day-to-day farming costs are constantly rising. The price of agricultural diesel, machinery and fertilisers has doubled in recent years due to the energy crisis in the Middle East and tariffs on Russian gas. Production costs have doubled, but they are selling for half the price. The result: it is no longer profitable to sow crops, they say.
"Farmers are wondering whether, with diesel prices above 1.50 euros, it is worth their while to sow this year," explains Andrés Góngora, general secretary of COAG, on Radio Nacional de España: "We are talking about hundreds of thousands of hectares, particularly in Castile and León, Castile-La Mancha and Aragon, which may remain unsown. "This scenario would have a serious impact on the cost of the weekly shop," he says, adding that reduced sowing "means greater dependence on imported cereals and, consequently, creates significant uncertainty regarding Spain's food sovereignty."
Cristóbal Cano, general secretary of the Union of Small Farmers and Livestock Breeders (UPA), made similar comments this week outside the Ministry of Agriculture, where they had gone to present a series of grievances: "We must ensure the viability of thousands of farms. There is great uncertainty, compounded by the unsustainable price situation. We need urgent measures to prevent us from having to pay to work. Anything that pushes the price of agricultural diesel above one euro will ruin the sector. This is an unjust war instigated by that tyrant Trump. We must call on his accomplices to see where he is leading the agricultural sector."
Is there a risk of food shortages?
There are no supply shortages, but there is inflation. The 2026 cereal harvest in Spain has been poor due to drought and late heatwaves, but global markets have a surplus of grain. Countries in the northern hemisphere and major producers such as the United States, Brazil and Ukraine itself have sufficient global stocks. As Spain is a premium international buyer, it always has the financial capacity to purchase the grain it lacks on the international market. So what is the problem? It is that in Spain, production is low and below cost, and, furthermore, the country is forced to import cereals at a higher price due to geopolitical fluctuations. Conclusion: we are importing inflation.
Just because grain is available doesn't mean it's cheap. Instability in the Black Sea, tensions in the Middle East and the global rise in the cost of maritime transport and fuel are putting pressure on logistics costs. If Spanish animal feed manufacturers have to pay more to import grain from abroad, that extra cost is passed directly on to the food supply chain. As a result, we consumers end up paying more for basic foodstuffs in the supermarket – particularly meat, dairy products and eggs, which have seen price rises of up to 30 per cent for the end consumer.
"I've really noticed it with eggs – instead of being a staple, they've become a luxury item," Nerea tells us as we speak to her outside a supermarket. "I don't understand at what point we've come to accept that half a dozen 'random' eggs – not free-range or anything – cost two euros," she adds indignantly. Her companion joins in the complaint. Her name is María and, for her, "what's worse is what's happening with bread – now a loaf won't cost you less than 1.20 and the quality is terrible, whereas two days ago we were paying 50 cents".
These are just a few examples of a scenario that could lead consumers into a critical situation, in the words of Óscar Salazar of COAG: "Make no mistake, we could face an unprecedented food crisis at any moment. We've already been through a financial crisis in the past and the sector had to be bailed out; well, this is the same thing – the agricultural sector must be bailed out," asserts the COAG spokesperson. He explains that "cereals are agricultural raw materials that form the basis of our diet, for both livestock and humans: bread, biscuits, pastries and animal feed – everything is derived from cereals, and not only these products; by extension, the prices of others will also rise".
He concludes: "Neither the European Union nor Spain can afford not to produce cereals; we cannot rely on third countries – it would be economic suicide."
An article written by Alma Navarro (RTVE), initially published on 28 September 2026, 07:12 (CEST)
