Over 36,000 more people than expected died in Europe this summer. This is the estimate from data collected by the European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), which measures what is known as "excess death", the gap between the number of recorded deaths and how many are expected for a particular time of the year.
While it will take months to know the exact breakdown of the causes for these deaths, one thing is clear: the timing of the heat waves that gripped the continent between June and August coincided with the biggest increase in fatalities in many countries.
In late June, as the first in an unprecedented series of heat waves hit Paris, the city's emergency medical service (Samu) saw its workload rise "by around 50 percent", Professor Frédéric Adnet, head of the service, told Radio France. Adnet described how they intervened to help "mostly elderly patients who live alone at home", but also slightly younger patients suffering "cardiac arrests caused by heatstroke". He observed "a significant rise in mortality" in the early summer, particularly between 25 and 27 June, when temperatures were at their highest levels in the French capital.
Franceinfo traced the stories of some of those who died during the June heat wave. Among them was Louisette Rivalain, 93, who lived alone near Paris. Despite enduring temperatures of 34 degrees Celsius in her flat, Rivalain had refused a temporary place in an air-conditioned care home because "she wanted above all to remain independent," according to her friend Odile, who found Rivalain unconscious in her apartment a day before she died from hyperthermia. Another casualty was Florean, 65, who lived in his car near Paris and was found dead on the street by a neighbour who regularly brought him food and water. "I initially thought he was sleeping next to his car to escape the heat," the neighbour told franceinfo.
That week in late June, when exceptional heat swept across much of Europe, was also when EuroMOMO recorded the sharpest rise in excess mortality for 2026. According to data available from 22 countries1 for that period, 85,642 deaths were recorded, 16,557 more than expected based on historical averages. In other words, 24 percent more people than expected died in those seven days.
The excess death measure became familiar during the Covid-19 pandemic period. At the peak of the pandemic's first wave, between 30 March and 5 April 2020, EuroMOMO recorded 35,802 more deaths than expected, or roughly 68 percent above the baseline. The heat wave and Covid-19 periods are not directly comparable as the countries contributing data to EuroMOMO have changed over time, but it puts the scale of this summer's death peak into perspective.
While the late-June spike was the most dramatic, mortality remained above expected levels well into July and August, particularly among older age groups. This unfolded against an exceptional season, as western Europe logged its hottest June and hottest summer overall, with numerous national and all-time records broken along the way.
Belgium was one of the countries most affected by the relentless heat. Over the course of the summer, it experienced three official heat waves (almost four depending on the criteria used, as RTBF explained), adding up to 30 days of extreme temperatures. Such episodes have become increasingly common in the country, going from fewer than one every three years before 1991, to more than one a year since 2021. The late-June episode was particularly extreme in Germany too: the night of 27 to 28 June was the warmest ever recorded there, and temperatures exceeded 40°C at 46 weather stations during the day.
For Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates the monitoring service Copernicus, this is part of a broader shift. "We will see more heat waves in a warmer world," she told RTÉ in July. "They will be more intense and they will last longer, and they will impact more geographical areas." Europe's rapid warming, she added, is also making the continent more susceptible to heat waves earlier in the year. "This is reflecting a structural shift in our climate rather than natural variability."
Counting deaths from heat is inherently difficult
Moving from excess mortality to a precise number of heat-related deaths is challenging. For one thing, "heat" rarely appears on a death certificate. As Germany's Robert Koch Institute explained to BR, extreme temperatures usually contribute to death by aggravating existing cardiovascular, respiratory or kidney conditions rather than acting as the direct cause. The toll therefore has to be reconstructed statistically, and those estimates can evolve substantially. The Robert Koch Institute initially estimated approximately 5,100 heat-related deaths in Germany during the late June heat wave, but a few weeks later, it revised the toll to around 9,600 as more data came in. Its latest figure puts the number of heat-related deaths in Germany at around 16,000 until early September, with the late-June week still accounting for most of the casualties.
Across the Rhine river, France's national health agency _Santé publique France_ recorded 5,764 excess deaths from all causes from 17 June to 2 July, 36 percent above expected mortality. More than half of these casualties happened in just three days, between 25 and 27 June. But the agency stresses that this is not yet an estimate of deaths directly attributable to heat. That calculation will come later, once mortality data for the full summer have been consolidated. Meanwhile, Spain already published its estimates of mortality linked to high temperatures, putting the figure at 5,091 deaths between June and August. Remarkably, only 21 percent of the heat-related death in Spain occurred during periods officially classified as heat waves, as reported by RTVE. That is an important distinction: heat-related mortality can accumulate well beyond the days that meet an official heat wave definition.
High temperatures can also be indirectly linked to deaths in other ways. For example, Germany's Life Saving Association (DLRG) reported a "dramatic rise" in fatal swimming accidents during the June heat wave as large numbers of people sought relief in rivers and lakes. More than 100 people died in water-related accidents that month, the highest June figure since 2003, BR reported.
Doctors also warn about the effects of heat on mental health: "Temperature will have a direct effect on our brain, on our brain's biology and, in particular, on the hormones that regulate our mood, behaviour, sleep and energy levels," Dr Marine Akkaoui, a psychiatrist at Sainte-Anne Hospital and the Paris Samu, told franceinfo. Over longer periods, she explained, hot nights and lack of sleep can contribute to anxiety, depression and broader psychiatric disorders. In August, the French national suicide prevention helpline recorded a 12 percent increase in calls.
EuroMOMO data clearly shows an uneven rise in mortality across Europe : Germany, France, Spain and Belgium accounted for much of this summer's increase, while elsewhere, excess mortality was smaller, came later, or remained within a more normal range throughout the summer.
Uneven distribution in the population
Across the continent, older people were by far the most affected, but the first heat wave also had an impact on younger age groups. In France for example, people aged 75 and over accounted for around two-thirds of the deaths, but excess mortality between 17 June and 2 July was recorded across all ages above 15, something the national health agency described as unprecedented. Later in July, the increase became more concentrated among older people, a pattern also seen across Europe; according to EuroMOMO weekly bulletins, when excess mortality largely returned to more usual levels by mid-August, mortality among people aged 85 and over remained unusually high.
The geographical mortality patterns were also highly uneven within countries: in France, the Île-de-France region alone recorded almost 2,000 excess deaths, an increase of 81 percent compared to local baselines. But perhaps the most striking case was Belgium. RTBF reported that mortality was around 77 percent above normal in Wallonia, compared with 31 percent in Flanders. In some districts around Liège, the increase exceeded 100 percent. That difference prompted a debate inside Belgium about why neighbouring populations exposed to the same broad weather system could experience such different outcomes.
Europe had heat plans. Were they enough?
The mortality spike did not catch European governments entirely unprepared. Many countries already had heat-health plans, warning systems and measures specifically targeting older and vulnerable people. In France, Frédéric Adnet, head of the emergency service Paris Samu, compared the summer situation with the catastrophic heatwave of 2003. There were fewer deaths, particularly in care homes, because "the public was warned" by public health messages, he said, and "care staff now know how to treat cases of heatstroke". However, Adnet pointed out the need to "put in place preventative measures for people living in isolation". These measures "already exist, but I believe we will need to be very persistent to prevent this excess mortality,", he said.
In Switzerland, which has also experienced an exceptionally hot summer, cities and cantons have progressively developed their own solutions: Geneva gave people over 65 free access to municipal swimming pools in the morning and air-conditioned cinemas in the afternoon during the hottest days. Bern and Lucerne keep a system of daily contact with older residents during heatwaves, while Zurich offered free help at home. But Switzerland has no coordinated national heat strategy, and some vulnerable groups remain largely outside existing prevention measures. "Everyone should benefit from a minimum level of protection, regardless of where they live," Ana Maria Vicedo Cabrera, an environmental epidemiologist at the University of Bern, told Swissinfo.
The bigger question is whether governments are still treating each heat wave as an isolated event, rather than a recurring pattern. Lisa Schipper, professor of development geography at the University of Bonn, described how adaptation in Germany, Austria and Switzerland are a "predominantly reactive process". Preparedness is improving, she said, but "what is crucial is recognising that adaptation is not merely an additional task, but a comprehensive process of transformation." In France, that debate has begun to shift from preparedness to accountability: a union for young doctors filed a complaint asking prosecutors to examine whether failures could amount to endangering lives or failing to assist people in danger. The physicians said their requests to the Health Ministry for details on how hospitals would be protected had gone unanswered and accused the government of "immobility" in the face of climate change, the union's president, Anna Boctor, told franceinfo. Boctor said this attitude was "more than worrying" and "harmful to our population". Meanwhile, following a report by the association Samu-Urgences de France (SUdF) detailing a "black summer", the French Hospital federation has officially demanded a green fund of 1 billion euro to adapt hospitals to climate changes.
Such calls for stronger protection of the population are also extending to the European level. In August, around 80 health organisations called for a European Heat Protection Plan backed by an emergency adaptation fund, including measures to make hospitals, care homes, nurseries and schools more resilient to extreme heat.
The final death toll from the heat of summer 2026 will take time to be established. When they arrive, the numbers will add to a growing body of evidence: an ISGlobal study estimated that more than 181,000 people died of heat-related causes during the summers of 2022 to 2024. "It is important not to forget the problem as soon as temperatures fall," the environmental epidemiologist Vicedo Cabrera said, "preparation for next summer must start now."
[Methodology: The figure covers weeks 26 to 35, from 22 June to 30 August, and is based on EuroMOMO data extracted in mid-September. Finland and Latvia are not included because data were unavailable for part or all of this period. The total is calculated by summing EuroMOMO's weekly excess mortality estimates. These estimates can be negative in weeks when fewer people die than expected, meaning the 36,000 figure is a net excess. It is therefore lower than the sum of the positive excesses shown on our chart.]
A European Perspective is an editorial collaboration initiative that brings together European public service media. Read more here.
Contributors: Klaus Schneider (BR), Petra Zimmerman (BR), Alice Kouri (franceinfo). Data visualisation: Luc Martinon. Illustration: Ann-Sophie De Steur. Text and coordination: Alexiane Lerouge.
With reporting by BR (Germany), franceinfo (France), RTBF (Belgium), RTÉ (Ireland), RTVE (Spain) and Swissinfo.ch (Switzerland).
An article written by A European Perspective (EBU_AEP), initially published on 25 September 2026, 08:46 (CEST)
